David Cairns walks out of Brown government: will others follow?

Gordon Brown's pre-election nightmare intensified this afternoon as Scottish Minister David Cairns became the first Minister to walk out of the Government in protest over his leadership.

Others are agonising over whether to follow his lead. One told the Mole: "David is far from alone in how he sees things."

The consensus among Ministerial rebels remains - just - that they should hold their fire until November once the Glenrothes by-election is out of the way. But events of the last few days have intensified their determination that a change of leadership remains their only slim hope of averting disaster at the next election.

They are divided between David Miliband and Alan Johnson as the best possible successor. Miliband evidently wants the job - but he knows that assassins rarely get the crown - while Johnson appears to lack the appetite for the post.

A couple of further thoughts. First, the departure of the articulate Cairns will only intensify the impression among voters that the Scottish Labour Party is in turmoil - making it even harder for the party to perform the miracle of holding on to Glenrothes.

Second, Labour conspiracy theorists detect the presence of former Home Secretary John Reid - a bitter foe of Brown - behind the meltdown. His former Parliamentary Private Secretary, Siobhain McDonagh, was the first rebel MP to go public. She was joined by Joan Ryan, who served under Reid as a Home Office Minister. And where was Cairns's first job in Westminster? As a researcher for Siobhain McDonagh.

MOLE: PM UNDER SIEGE

FIRST POSTED SEPTEMBER 16, 2008