Economic cloud has a silver lining for Gordon Brown

There are indications that the threat of rebellion against Gordon Brown at the Labour Party conference, which starts on Saturday in Manchester, could be fading.

None of his many critics - either within the Government or on the backbenches - have changed their conviction that he is a loser. But there is a growing acceptance that to move against him at a time when the entire financial system is in crisis would be incomprehensible to the outside world.

As one MP - no admirer of Brown - says: "It would look incredibly self-indulgent - the punters wouldn't understand it."

Downing Street too is confident that the meltdown in the money markets will make conference in-fighting a little less likely. They hope the Prime Minister's active role in facilitating the takeover of HBOS by Lloyds TSB this week and his pledge to "clean up the system" in the City will hammer home the message that Brown is getting on with business while his enemies plot in corners.

Brown made the same point in a Sky TV interview today, warning Cabinet plotters they would "fail the country" if they did not unite behind his leadership to tackle Britain's precarious economic position.

Expect him to portray himself in his speech to the party faithful next week as a rock in the swirling waters of financial turbulence. And expect yet more hints of change as his administration desperately tries to get on the front foot.

Brown's allies are counting on activists to rally round in a mass public show of unity, but they also know any ceasefire will be incredibly fragile.

It would take only a rush of blood to the head of a former Minister speaking at a fringe meeting or a set of especially dire opinion poll ratings to reactivate the insurrection.

Though a set of figures worse than the Ipsos MORI survey released on Wednesday is hard to imagine. It put the Conservatives on a stunning 52 per cent, up four points, with Labour languishing on 24 per cent and the Lib Dems, fresh from their own party conference, four points down at 12 per cent.

THE MOLE: LABOUR CONFERENCE

FIRST POSTED SEPTEMBER 19, 2008