Henley result could hand Brown a very unhappy first birthday

David Cameron's aides are counting on giving Gordon Brown the perfect anniversary present on Friday when he marks his first year in office.

For Brown it is one of those birthdays he would rather forget, though he knows no-one is going to let him do so.

The Tories are hoping they can present him with a lost deposit in the Henley by-election. Some Tory schemers are playing with the idea of having a whip-round to give him the money, just to see his face.

The by-election in Henley caused by Boris Johnson's decision to quit the seat after his triumph in the election for Mayor of London is a Labour no-hoper. Labour came a bad third at the last general election behind the Lib Dems who are desperately trying to pump up their performance in Henley to show they are not being crushed in a two-party squeeze.

The Lib Dems are a side show, however. The humiliation of a Labour lost deposit would be used by David Cameron to claim this weekend that Labour has ceased to be a credible force in parts of Britain. Of course, you could say the same about the Tories in some parts of Britain.

It was also nearly a year ago that Tony Lit standing as David Cameron's Conservatives in Ealing Southall came a poor third behind the Lib Dems with 22.4 per cent of the vote. What a difference a year has made. In July last year, Brown was riding high and Cameron was made to look like a young chancer.

ICM poll in today's Guardian puts Labour on 25 percent, down 2 points since the last ICM poll last month, with the Conservatives up 4 points on 45 per cent

The bookies are offering short odds on Labour losing its deposit at Henley. Currently the betting is 1-4 that Labour will lose the deposit, and 5-2 against. At the last election, you had to get one-twentieth of the votes cast to save your £500.

Peter Mandelson, never one of Brown's closest buddies, says in today's Daily Telegraph: "He has to prove himself tough enough to keep making the necessary response and the necessary changes. In other words, the right man for difficult times."

AC Grayling, the Labour-supporting philosopher, says he has had enough: "His first year has been fumbling and unpersuasive, and worst of all he and his government have been profoundly disappointing on civil liberties matters, making it impossible for me to continue supporting them."

Those around the PM are braced for a bad day on Friday with Gloomy Broon. The Mole's advice to Sarah Brown is: don't mention the anniversary, cover up the mirrors, and for God's sake, don't buy him a cake with a single candle on it.

THE MOLE: BY-ELECTION BLUES

FIRST POSTED JUNE 25, 2008