Brown fails to rule out spring 2009 general election

Gordon Brown has attempted to put a lid on speculation that he will go to the country in spring 2009. His comment on Radio 2's Jeremy Vine show that he is not interested in opinion polls that show a narrowing of the Tories' lead is a bid to avoid the accusations of dithering he suffered last autumn when he failed to call a much-anticipated General Election.

The opposition has reacted with scepticism. "Pull the other one, Gordon," is the view in the Tory high command, where they reckon Brown is clearing the decks for an election. "His problem this time is that if it looks as though he's going for it, he can't funk an election for a second time," said one leading Tory.

The Pre-Budget Report on Monday is seen at Westminster as part of an election strategy by Lord Mandelson and Alastair Campbell to give Brown the option of going to the country next May.

The Prime Minister told Vine that his full attention was focused on guiding the country through economic turmoil. He said he was "not thinking about anything else" - but crucially, he carefully avoided ruling out a General Election next year.

The Pre-Budget Report is the most heavily prepared Autumn statement since Labour came to power. Brown has been dangling the prospect of tax cuts with help for small businesses and families. Tony McNulty, the Employment Minister, dropped a very clear hint that he will announce the scrapping of plans to close down job centres because of the downturn.

Labour MPs are also demanding the cancellation of tougher rules for single mothers, who will have to show they are seeking work if their child is over 12 or lose their benefits. They fear that it could push some single parent families into poverty.

Tax cuts will be targeted at those on low incomes who were the main losers after the abolition of the 10p tax band. Brown's compensation package failed to reach many and Alistair Darling, the Chancellor, has been ordered to make sure that this time they get the tax breaks. But Labour MPs are also hoping he will make a more spectacular cut in the cost of living, by slashing VAT.

The Treasury has been damping down speculation that Darling is about to announce a £30bn give-away, but nothing is being ruled out. Besides fast-tracking of big road and rail projects, there is even talk of a return to council house building. Darling is due to address the entire Parliamentary Labour Party on Monday after his statement, in order to reinforce his message that the tax cuts are necessary to reflate the economy.

He needn't worry: Labour MPs are firmly behind Brown's package. They reckon it is the only hope they have of saving their seats, whenever the election comes, and the Tory leader David Cameron's warnings of tax rises in the future will have little impact compared to the desperate need to avoid unemployment soaring to 3m.

The Downing Street strategy bears all the hallmarks of election planning by Campell and Mandelson. Brown knows it is high risk, but it is a gamble he has to take.

THE MOLE: ELECTION SPECULATION

FIRST POSTED NOVEMBER 21, 2008