Ministers cling to bizarre hopes on day of crucial by-election

Labour MPs were holding their breath this morning as voters went to the polls in the Glasgow East by-election.

Their private polling tells them that the party should scrape home by between 1,000 and 3,000 votes in the formerly rock-solid seat - the majority at the last general election was 13,000-plus.

But the jitters are setting in at Labour high command after canvassers warned that the party's vote seemed "soft" in the face of a determined onslaught from the Scottish Nationalists.

One Minister who also door-stepped Crewe and Nantwich - back in May when the Tories enjoyed their first by-election victory in 26 years - claimed the anti-Labour mood is slightly less incendiary in Glasgow. Another bizarrely argued that bad weather today could help the party's prospects by keeping down the turnout, so leaving Labour's irreducible core vote in the constituency to carry the day. However, the bad news for him - and the party - is that the forecast is sunny and clear for today.

Any sort of victory will lift the clouds over Downing Street – but only for a few hours. The Prime Minister then heads for the party's policy forum in Warwick, where many union leaders will be in the most bloody-minded of moods.

Were Labour to crash to defeat in Glasgow East, it could set in train a process that would likely end with Jack Straw or Alan Johnson in Downing Street.

Ministers are now heading for their holidays suffering acute political exhaustion. They can't get on their planes and trains quickly enough. One Cabinet member insisted that their mobile phone would be off for the duration: "Any call I get wouldn't be to bring good news."

THE MOLE: GLASGOW EAST

FIRST POSTED JULY 24, 2008