MP’s death is another Scottish nightmare for Gordon Brown

Sadly, the death of Labour MP John MacDougall, which was announced this morning after a long fight against mesothelioma, was not a surprise. But in the brutal world of party politics, it still came as the worst possible news for a dispirited and divided Labour hierarchy. As one party figure said: "We have been dreading this moment."

The by-election that will follow in the seat of Glenrothes, Fife, is a nightmare for Gordon Brown, who lost a close personal friend in MacDougall. Glenrothes is highly vulnerable to a surge by the SNP who can currently do little wrong north of the border.

Making matters worse, it borders Brown's own constituency. Defeat there would be a humiliating blow to the Prime Minister, who already faces enough hurdles to get through this autumn.

It has become a cliche after the party's Glasgow East by-election defeat in July for Brown's enemies within his own party to warn that if Labour cannot win in Scotland under a Scottish leader then it has no hope of reaching out to disillusioned voters in the southeast of England.

The betting is that the by-election will be delayed as late as possible, probably until November, to allow Labour to plan properly for the contest. But the danger for Brown is that the SNP, for whom Glasgow East was a much more difficult prospect, will also use the time to gain momentum.

Even if a leadership challenge does not materialise, and he survives what threatens to be a torrid party conference in September, could rebellion in his own backyard deliver the fatal final blow to Brown? The chances of him still being in Downing Street at the end of the year faded a little further this morning.

THE MOLE: PM UNDER SIEGE

LAST UPDATED 12:04 PM, AUGUST 13, 2008