Not good for Brown – and not good for Miliband either

Poor old Labour. As speculation over the prospects for Gordon Brown's autumn fightback continues, a new poll gives glum news both for the Prime Minister and the frontrunner to succeed him, David Miliband.

Miliband, according to a Guardian/ICM survey published today, would be no more successful against David Cameron than Brown in a General Election. The poll gives Cameron a 21-point lead over Brown in response to the question, who would make the best prime minister. Substituting Miliband for the PM, the Tory leader still enjoys a 21-point lead.

It all feeds in to the feeling among some Labour MPs that the party's position won't be buoyed by a change in personality. They believe that "if you are heading for an iceberg don't change the captain, change direction".

Some are sceptical that Brown can or will change direction, but many, particularly those on the left, are distinctly wary of the direction they think a Miliband-led party might take.

Brown, meanwhile, will re-enter the political fray with a visit to the Beijing Olympics this weekend before the political autumn season starts for real after the Bank Holiday. Jack Straw, himself seen as a possible caretaker leader if Brown should be persuaded to step down, will mind the shop while the PM is away.

Hints at a Gordon Brown fightback have come from Yvette Cooper,
the Chief Secretary to the Treasury, who attacked Cameron's economic
policies, and Andy Burnham, the Culture Secretary, who issued a hardly veiled warning to leadership plotters when he urged the party to avoid "introspection".

THE MOLE: OPINION POLL

FIRST POSTED AUGUST 19, 2008