On Iraq, the EU, even 42 days - everything’s looking sunnier

Is the political weather finally changing for Gordon Brown? Today's joint press conference at the Foreign Office with George Bush was never going to be more than a photo-op on the presidential 'good riddance' tour of Europe. Yet the Bush visit has thrown a lifeline to Brown over Iraq.

Brown is planning to make a statement to the Commons before the summer recess next month on a big drawdown of troops from Basra. Bush - haemorrhaging power every day he gets closer to the inauguration next January of a new president - is powerless to put pressure on Brown to keep troop levels at their present total of 4,100. And nothing could give the PM more Brownie points with his own MPs than pulling troops out of Basra.

It would demolish the efforts of the old Left to cause trouble at the annual Labour party conference in the autumn with 'troops out' motions (see my May 27 report). It would also draw a line under the disastrous inheritance from Tony Blair who discussed the 'good old days' over breakfast today with Bush (who described his relationship with Blair as being "forged in fire".

A thoughtful Bush may sound like a contradiction in terms, but the President appears to be planning his place in history. There were three historians at the Downing Street dinner to help him - including Simon Schama, who once said Bush was a "fucking catastrophe". The president even sounded chastened in his interview with Adam Boulton on Sky News, claiming he now regretted saying he was going to get Osama bin Laden "dead or alive" because it "sent the wrong signal".

Maybe, just maybe - Brown is now thinking - Bush might not go crazy and bomb Iran before he steps down from office. And that will give Brown some time to show his mettle against David Cameron.

The Irish 'No' vote on the Lisbon Treaty has thrown Brown a second lifeline. He intends to stand up to France and Germany, who want to move on without Ireland, creating a two-tier Europe. Brown will go ahead with the ratification process in the Lords this week, but is then prepared to ditch it rather than ditch Ireland.

And on 42 days’ detention without charge for terrorist suspects, the 'courageous' stand by David Davis to draw attention to civil liberties by triggering a by-election in his East Yorkshire seat is full of negatives for Cameron, who tried to persuade him not to do it.

Brown is now thinking that maybe summer is going to be sunny after all.

THE MOLE: NO 10 WEATHER FORECAST

FIRST POSTED JUNE 16, 2008