‘We all know he is stubborn, but now he is looking stupid’

The writ for the by-election in Crewe and Nantwich is being moved today for May 22 to leave the Tories as little time as possible to organise their troops to win the seat after Thursday's expected Conservative gains in the local elections.

The late Gwyneth Dunwoody had a majority of 7,078 but the Tories are eyeing it as a potentially winnable seat in a by-election. Crewe may still be a major centre for the rail industry, but the outskirts are leafy and Cheshire is real estate heaven for many Premier League players with the Manchester and Merseyside clubs.

Gordon Brown will have a tough task holding on to the seat, but he is planning to give the impression of steaming on regardless with the early publication of the draft Queen's Speech at the end of May. Discussion on the legislative programme took up most of the weekly Cabinet meeting on Tuesday. It is likely to include constitutional reform, but legislation on a reformed House of Lords will be a manifesto commitment for after the general election.

Meanwhile, Conservative canvassers coming back from pounding the streets in London are reporting that Boris Johnson is heading for victory in Thursday's London mayoral election. Veteran Labour MPs say that even if Ken Livingstone survives there will be a backlash against Brown as MPs in marginals see their support disappear in town halls across the country.

The voters look determined to give Brown a bloody nose after the debacle over the doubling of tax for the lowest paid from 10p to 20p and the mismanaged attempt to compensate the losers.

Labour MPs are privately dismayed over the Treasury's antics, including increasing winter fuel allowance for pensioners and backdating it to April, making it a summer fuel allowance. Even some of Brown's old friends are leaving him. "We all know he is stubborn, but now he is looking stupid," said one bitter Labour MP.

The Mole still thinks its madness to contemplate a leadership challenge against Brown this side of a general election. But by Friday, some Labour MPs may be feeling mad enough to do just that.

THE MOLE: PM UNDER SIEGE

FIRST POSTED APRIL 30, 2008