Why it pays backbenchers to let Gordon Brown continue in office

Gordon Brown's chances of unwrapping his Christmas presents in Downing Street are in the balance. Shortly before the latest leadership convulsions to hit the party, one ministerial loyalist told the Mole that he put Brown's chances of surviving into the New Year at "50-50". The latest flurry may have slightly tipped the odds.

The Prime Minister's allies are trying to portray the calls for a leadership contest led by disillusioned MPs Siobhain McDonagh, Joan Ryan, Frank Field, George Howarth et al as the demands of a lonely group not typical of the Parliamentary Labour Party.

Not true. The worries about Brown's performance, and his apparent inability to empathise with the public for the TV cameras, are shared across the PLP and within Government. The trouble is, they do not know what to do next. They don’t know who would do a better job, they don’t know how much longer Brown should be given and they don’t know how to remove him.

Many believe Brown should be given another couple of months to pull it round - first in his speech next week to the Labour party conference in Manchester and then in the Pre-Budget Report expected shortly after.

MPs will have noticed that John Hutton, the Blairite Business Secretary, was carefully nuanced in his protestations of support for the PM yesterday, insisting Brown could win the next election, but defending MPs' right to discuss the party's future. Further moves to oust Brown could come after the near-certain defeat for Labour in the Glenrothes by-election, expected in early November.

But other MPs are reluctant to move against the PM for rather baser reasons. They have been warned by Labour whips - who have been accused of using their most brutal techniques since 1997 – that a change of leader would force an early general election. That may not be the constitutional position, but it is the political reality: a second 'coronation' following that of Brown last year would not be acceptable.

Why go to the country (and certain defeat) in early 2009 when they could hang on until the summer of 2010 under Gordon Brown? Defeat still might follow, but they would have pocketed almost 18 months more pay in the interim. There is a £90,000 incentive for delaying an election for the 100-plus Labour backbenchers who could lose their seats.

FIRST POSTED SEPTEMBER 15, 2008