A tepid affair, but straw polls and focus groups call it for Obama

The first presidential debate, live from Oxford, Mississippi, goes down as a tepid draw with more political commentators and a narrow win for Barack Obama in straw polls and focus groups. There were no fireworks, no knock-out blows, no gaffes.

John McCain tried to patronise the younger man - "Senator Obama does not understand" was a constant refrain - while Barack Obama tried to tie McCain's policies to those of the failed Bush administration. But he was too concilatory for some tastes - "John is absolutely right" came up several times during the 90-minute session.

Although the first of three scheduled presidential debates was originally billed as a foreign policy and national security discussion, the first half was given over to the immediate economic situation and the currently stalled $700bn bail-out plan. Obama used this period to highlight his promise for a middle-class tax cut, while McCain repeatedly vowed to cut federal spending.

Most commentators agreed that McCain was less comfortable during these early exchanges - when, crucially he indicated that he would vote for the Wall Street bail-out - but that he perked up as the discussion turned to his specialist topic.

Obama was reckoned to have held his own during the economic discussions, perhaps persuading some independents that he was a safe man to hold the nation's highest office. As the Wall Street Journal reported, "Sen Obama seemed sharper than in some past debates, quick on the attack and seemingly unintimidated by his rival's greater number of years on the world stage."

But as Alexander Cockburn writes today for The First Post, it was McCain who needed to "light a firestorm" on Friday night having been hit by a national poll published on Wednesday which showed him slipping behind Obama by nine points. And he failed to do so.

Cockburn believes McCain missed his chance when he indicated that he would vote for the $700bn Wall Street bail-out plan, which is deeply unpopular among ordinary Americans. "A 'No' to the bail-out from McCain would have put Obama in a difficult position," writes Cockburn, "exposing the timidity of his own posture, and leaving him with the options of either being Wall Street's errand boy or ­ if he tried to outflank McCain from the left ­ as a wild-eyed radical. But McCain's nerve failed him."

A CBS News instant poll released after the debate declared that 40 per cent of uncommitted voters thought Obama was the winner while 22 per cent thought McCain won and 38 per cent saw it as a draw.

The poll also showed that on the economy, 68 per cent thought Obama would make the right decision against 41 per cent for McCain. On the issue of Iraq, 49 per cent thought Obama would make the right decisions against 55 per cent for McCain.

A second straw poll for CNN found that 51 per cent thought that Obama won, while 38 per cent went for McCain.

Two focus groups of undecided voters who watched the debate - one with Republican pollster Frank Luntz, the other with Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg - also declared Obama the winner.

FIRST POSTED SEPTEMBER 27, 2008