Biden, Bayh and Kaine top list as VP gossip mill goes into overdrive

Washington was buzzing in the small hours after the word went out that Barack Obama is about to reveal his choice of running-mate ahead of next week's Democratic Party convention in Denver. According to a much-discussed report by Adam Nagourney and Jeff Zeleny in today's New York Times, Senator Barack Obama has "all but settled" on his choice and it is thought to be one of three men - Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana, Governor Tim Kaine of Virginia and Senator Joseph Biden Jr of Delaware.

Obama is insisting that there is no leak before party supporters are notified and as a result has laid out an elaborate 'roll-out plan' for his decision, which will begin with early morning text and email alerts to supporters - perhaps as soon as Wednesday morning.

According to the New York Times, lawyers working for the Obama campaign have finished their detailed process of vetting half-a-dozen candidates. The chosen one has not yet been notified, aides said on Monday night.

The Obama camp clearly hopes to get maximum publicity out of the announcement, after an awkward period during which Obama has been on a family holiday in Hawaii and his Republican opponent, John McCain, has made full use of having the political stage to himself, especially during the Georgia crisis.

The Times article reports Obama's advisers as saying that the senator's big choice was "the extent to which he needed to choose someone who would fill perceived holes in his resume - lack of experience, particularly in foreign policy - versus a candidate who would reinforce his promise of change or one who might help him win a contested state.

"Senator Biden, the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, clearly fell into the category of helping Mr. Obama on foreign policy, while Mr Kaine is a relative newcomer to national politics and would reinforce the notion of change. Both Mr Kaine and Mr Bayh would help Mr Obama in a state that Democrats are trying to put in play."

Political bloggers have homed in on the Biden option because of Obama's perceived weakness on foreign policy. On Foreign Policy Passport, Blake Hounshell writes: "Biden, who travelled to Georgia this weekend at the behest of President Mikhail Saakashvili, would be seen by many as a solid choice for Obama on foreign policy. He hasn't hesitated to launch sharp attacks on John McCain, and he has a record of making prescient comments about Pakistan, among other issues."

Shailagh Murray, writing for the Washington Post's The Trail campaign diary, says all three favourites have been leaving clues.

"It may or may not be a coincidence that Tim Kaine and Evan Bayh... appeared on Sunday news programmes. Further stoking the Kaine flame, Obama is scheduled to campaign in Virginia on Thursday.

"But the most curious recent development was Sen. Joseph Biden Jr's trip to Georgia this weekend. Obama campaign officials said the fact-finding mission wasn't their idea, but they did confirm discussing it in advance with Biden's office."

One thing is for sure - the vice-presidential nominee is down to speak in Denver next Wednesday, so Obama has to announce his decision before then.

FIRST POSTED AUGUST 19, 2008