Dick Morris: Obama hot on Hillary's heels

Dick Morris, the political commentator who was once Bill Clinton's most trusted political advisor, says: Stop the presses! The very latest polling data from California indicates a sharp trend for Barack Obama and against Hillary Clinton.

Pollster Scott Rasmussen's three day tracking survey, conducted on January 28-30, shows Hillary with a bare and dwindling 3 point lead over Obama in California. This compares with a 20 point lead just a few weeks ago.

Other polls have Obama winning Georgia (O-52 H-36) and Alabama (O-40 H--35) with their sizable minority populations, but also very close in Massachusetts, trailing there by only H-43 O-37 and in Montana by only H-40 O-33. National polls also indicate a sharp closing of the race.

But there could be a wrinkle. In most states, the most of the delegates are awarded by Congressional District where the two slates compete and the one with the most votes wins all the delegates from that district. Even if Obama were to carry California by, say 53-47, he might win the black districts by 80-20 and lose most or all of the white districts, giving Hillary the vast bulk of the delegates. Obama would have to get his margin of victory up to 8-10 points to be sure of sweeping the delegates in a given state.

Yet, when all is said and done, the trend lines for Obama are unbelievably positive just a few days before Super Tuesday.

FIRST POSTED FEBRUARY 1, 2008