Early votes favour Obama as pressure mounts on McCain

Pressure continues to build on the Republican candidate with the news that John McCain's team has given up campaigning in Colorado and downgraded its chances in Iowa and New Mexico. All three states, won by George Bush in 2004, were once considered hopeful, but with Barack Obama outspending McCain on local organisation and advertising, the Republicans have had to make tough decisions and focus on those swing states like Florida and Ohio where they still have a chance.

Further encouraging news for the Democrats comes from a new poll by the Pew Research Centre, which gives Obama 52 per cent against 38 per cent for McCain among registered voters, the biggest lead yet for Obama. According to Pew, key factors in the loss of confidence in the Republican ticket are the choice of Sarah Palin as vice-presidential candidate and McCain's age.

With a fortnight to go before the November 4 election, many Americans have begun to cast their votes in early ballots and most commentators agree these early votes - which may account for some 30 per cent of the total votes cast - favour the Democrats.

As many as 30 states now allow their citizens to cast what is still known as an 'absentee' ballot. These used to be reserved for those who anticipated not being able to get to a polling station on election day, and were most popular with elderly people, who are statistically more likely to vote Republican. But states now offer the early ballots to any citizen who wants to get in ahead of the rush and since 2004 the Democrats have made these ballots more attractive to younger voters and so turned them to their own advantage.

The take-up has been especially big in several key swing states. In Florida, well in excess of 1.5m voters have asked to make their mark before November 4. "Today is Election Day. So is tomorrow. And every day until November 4," says John Fortier on Politico.

And that's a truth that Obama is seeking to take advantage of, say Scott Helman and Brian C Mooney for the Boston Globe. "Wanting to protect his lead in Florida and in many battleground states, he is trying to bank as many votes as he can," they suggest, "to limit the potential for an 11th hour development that might shift voters to McCain."

"The record levels of early voting are strongly benefiting Obama," agrees Suzanne Goldenberg for the Guardian, "giving him a cushion against a late surge by McCain."

On the Democrats' drive to get young people to vote, the BBC reports that "thousands of his [Obama's] volunteers have been mobilised, including 'town criers' riding on public buses, offering lifts to college students, and neighbourhood teams to give voters a push."

FIRST POSTED OCTOBER 22, 2008