McCain closes in on Obama in some polls – but not others

Confusion reigns among the pollsters. When Barack Obama comes back from his ill grandmother's to the campaign trail on Saturday, will he find John McCain closing in on him in the polls or will he have his most comfortable lead yet?

"A few encouraging tidbits turned up Wednesday," said Alexander Burns on Politico, "signs that recent rumours of the McCain campaign's demise have been premature." Even more encouraging for the GOP, says Burns, "are two new surveys conducted by the highly respected Mason-Dixon polling firm, in the key states of Florida and Virginia, which show McCain well within striking distance in both battlegrounds."

Or is he? A poll conducted yesterday by CNN/Time had Obama leading by ten points in Virginia. As for McCain's chances in Pennsylvania – a state most think he needs to win to stay in the race for the White House – three of today's polls put Obama up by 11 points, 10 points and 13 points respectively. But then only a week ago, stats gathered by Obama's own campaign team only put the Illinois senator up by two points.

There is "a fast-growing and fractious cadre of American pollsters spitting out numbers faster than Sarah Palin drops non sequiturs," says Michael Crowley on The New Republic. "The profusion of poll numbers in turn fuels the public's hunger for more definitive, or more reassuring, polls," he says but he warns that polling standards are slipping as pollsters cash in on the public appetite.

Meanwhile the pundits are losing sleep over the statistics. "Last night, I woke up in a sweat. I'd had a very bizarre dream," revealed Steven Stark on Real Clear Politics, where despite still being slightly behind in the polls on election day, "John McCain had been elected president over Barack Obama".

On the Huffington Post, Madeline Kumin is worried. "One moment, when I scan the polls I'm convinced that nothing can stop Barack Obama," she says. "The next minute I look at the polls again – some have him ahead by only three points, others by six, and a few by double digits. What about the margin of error? My mood plummets. He [Obama] could lose."

But the Democrats probably don’t need to panic just yet, said Nate Silver yesterday on independent poll tracking site fivethirtyeight.com. "While there are plenty of individual results for Matt Drudge to get excited about (or for that matter the Huffington Post), the fact is that the overall trend in this election is roughly flat," he said. "That is bad news for the candidate trailing in the race, which in this case is John McCain."

Jon Cohen and Jennifer Agiesta for the Washington Post agree. They point out that Obama is ahead by 11 points on McCain among likely voters in the new Washington Post-ABC News tracking poll, by 54 to 43 per cent - his biggest lead yet in this poll.

Other recent polls giving Obama a clear lead include the Pew Research Centre's survey, reported here yesterday, showing Obama ahead by 14 points; a Wall Street Journal/NBC poll putting him ten points clear; and a Fox News poll showing a nine-point advantage for the Democrat. Today's rolling poll from Zogby for Reuters/C-Span gives Obama a 12-point lead (52 to 40).

The Real Clear Politics average has Obama seven points up today. At his most recent peak, nine days ago, the Democrat had an 8.2 per cent lead on McCain. But ignore that, says DJ Drummond on Wizbang - this election will go down to the wire. "The polls are wrong. Make your own mind up, because your vote will matter."

FIRST POSTED OCTOBER 23, 2008