Media roundup: The start of the campaign

The New York Times’ Michael Powell has written that Barack Obama has begun making the shift towards centrist politics. The Illinois Senator has been characterised by his critics as the most liberal man in Congress, but now Obama "has taken calibrated positions on issues that include electronic surveillance, campaign finance and the death penalty for child rapists". He is in hot pursuit of what Bill Clinton once called "the vital centre".

Meanwhile in the Washington Post veteran Washington correspondent Bob Novak writes that Obama’s conservative fans (such as Colin Powell and Chuck Hagel) are drawn to him simply out of a loathing towards the present Bush administration. Obamacons, as Novak calls them, "are reason for concern by McCain. They also should cause soul-searching at the Bush White House about who made the Republican Party so difficult a place for Republicans to stay".

Nate Silver provides an in-depth analysis about each candidate’s support base on Five Thirty-Eight. According to polling data provided by Rasmussen both Obama and John McCain have a problem with support from their own parties. While the number of Republicans who said they view McCain "very unfavourably" is low (four per cent), only 34 per cent of Republicans said they viewed him "very favourably". Obama has the opposite problem: eight per cent of Democrats judging him "very unfavourably", but a massive 56 per cent have a very favourable view of him. Silver says that it is the "very unfavourables" who end up defecting on election day, and Obama must ensure that his eight per cent doesn’t rise any higher. "Obama would be thrilled, of course, if he could actually get his defection rate down to 8 per cent: John Kerry lost 11 per cent of Democrats to George W. Bush; Al Gore lost 11 per cent to Bush and two to Nader; Bill Clinton lost 10 per cent to Bob Dole and five per cent to Ross Perot."

Top of the Ticket, (the election blog of the LA Times), points out that the Hillary Clinton’s first appearance as a campaigner for Obama will be at New Hampshire. The much-publicised joint-appearance will be held tonight, appropriately enough, in a town named Unity. The event represents "a protracted and intense effort by the Obama camp to keep New Hampshire in the Democratic column this November". Obama needs to win all the states which Democratic candidate John Kerry won in 2004, if he expects to move into the White House in January. "If Obama can win it and all the other Kerry states (he) can forego the two locales that broke Democratic hearts in the last two elections - Florida and Ohio."

On a lighter note Talking Points Memo picks up on the fact that future debates between John McCain and Obama may be set up in a way which would "neutralise Obama’s height advantage". Unlike in previous elections where candidates were on a stage, free to move around, candidates this year will "sit at a table, (creating a) more conversational talk-show format".

FIRST POSTED JUNE 27, 2008