Obama in sight of a landslide on Nov 4

With three weeks to go before America elects its next president, and on the eve of the third and final TV debate between the two candidates, a four-day tracking poll released this morning shows Barack Obama increasing his lead over John McCain. It looks more and more likely that America is about to elect its first black president.

According to the Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll, Obama leads McCain 49 per cent to 43 per cent among likely voters. Pollster John Zogby said: "It's safe to say he [McCain] doesn't have much time to turn this around."

The details show Obama has a formidable 17-point advantage among independents and a solid 11-point lead among women, two key voting blocs in the November 4 election. Obama also holds a narrow lead among men, and leads McCain among voters in every age group, including the over-65s who had been among the Republican's strongest supporters.

McCain, 72, has a shrinking 11-point lead among whites and only a small lead among high-income workers. "McCain is losing ground with the groups that are supposed to be in his pocket and with the ones he should be competitive with," Zogby said.

Obama's gains came despite a period of concerted attacks by McCain and running mate Sarah Palin on the Illinois senator's character and judgment, most notably his tenuous links with the former 1960s radical William Ayers.

Combined with other recent polls, the new survey supports the prognosis that, in terms of electoral college votes, Obama could win by a landslide on November 4.

The Real Clear Politics website, which aggregates all polls, has crucially moved the key state of Florida out of the 'toss-up' column into 'leaning Obama'. Based on RCP's latest data, Obama now has 304 electoral college votes to 158 for McCain, with 76 'toss-ups'. To win the presidential election, a candidate needs 270 votes. Even if McCain were to win all the toss-ups, he'd still have to concede to Obama.

The Boston Globe today announced it was endorsing Obama for the presidency (though for a big city paper at the heart of liberal America to have gone the other way would have been unthinkable).

In its editorial, the paper says: "The nation needs a chief executive who has the temperament and the nerves to shepherd Americans through what promises to be a grueling period - and who has the vision to restore this country to its place of leadership in the world.

"Such a leader is at hand. With great enthusiasm, the Globe endorses Senator Barack Obama for president. The charismatic Democrat from Illinois has the ability to channel Americans' hopes and rally the public together, at a time when the winds are picking up and the clouds keep on darkening."

LAST UPDATED 8:34 AM, OCTOBER 14, 2008