Obama is bruised but unbeatable

Washington commentator Robert Novak believes that Barack Obama’s "hastily arranged" speech on race was not a perfect response to the furore that erupted over the Rev Jeremiah Wright’s controversial comments. Although the speech was stylish and eloquent, it painted him as the one thing he has spent his campaign avoiding: the black candidate. This could, however, work to his advantage because the super-delegates would risk alienating the African-American base of the Democratic Party if they reject Obama in favour of Clinton.

Due to the system of proportional representation it is not possible for Clinton to overtake Obama’s lead in pledged delegates even if she wins big in Pennsylvania and Indiana. Since the Clinton camp’s requests for re-votes in Florida and Michigan were denied, it seems that her only chance is to convince super-delegates that Obama would be unable to win a national election. The fact that Obama has fallen behind McCain in various polls since the Wright videos will be presented as proof of his unelectability.

To combat this, Obama’s team have been contacting super-delegates to say that his support in Pennsylvania is "coming back" in the wake of his speech. They have also begun to circulate photographs of Bill Clinton with Rev Wright from 1998.

The big problem is that the controversy surrounding Wright now exceeds politics. People with no interest in the Democratic nomination are aware of Wright’s statements – something which has transformed Obama’s political persona "from Harvard law review to South Side activist".

The consensus in the Democratic Party is that Obama will clinch the nomination just before the convention in August. One insider, however, warned that the Clintons "will do anything - anything - to get nominated."

FIRST POSTED MARCH 25, 2008