Inspirational Obama will defeat ‘flat’ Hillary

Dick Morris (left), the political commentator who was once Bill Clinton's most trusted political advisor, says: I believe that Barack Obama will defeat Hillary Clinton and win the Democratic nomination. I think that this weekend's victories in states as diverse as Washington State, Louisiana, Nebraska, and Maine illustrates his national appeal and demonstrates Hillary's inability to win in states without large immigrant and Latino populations.

Hillary's results on Super Tuesday, which amounted to a draw with Obama, will be her high water mark and will represent the closest she will ever come to the party nomination. Right now, CBS has Obama ahead in elected delegates with 1134, while Hillary has only 1131. By the time Virginia, Maryland, DC, Wisconsin and Hawaii vote next week, Obama will have a lead over Clinton of about 100 delegates.

March 4 will, at worst, be a draw for Obama with his probable wins in Ohio, Rhode Island and Vermont offsetting his probable defeat in Texas. And then come a list of states almost all of which should go for Obama, including likely victories in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Indiana.

By the convention, he will have more than enough delegates to overcome the expected margins Hillary may rack up among super delegates. And don't bet on all the super delegates staying hitched to Hillary. These folks are politicians, half of them public office holders who are really good at reading the handwriting on the wall and really bad at gratitude for past favours.

Since 2004, I have predicted that Hillary Clinton would be the nominee. But, given the consistently amazing performance of Obama, his superior organisational and fund-raising skills, his inspiration of young people, and the flat and completely uninspiring performance by Hillary, it looks to me like it will now be Obama.

FIRST POSTED FEBRUARY 12, 2008