GOP victory in Georgia means Democrats miss the magic 60

Democrat dreams of a coveted super-majority in the Senate died on Tuesday night when Republican Saxby Chambliss beat Democrat Jim Martin to win the run-off election in Georgia. With only the Minnesota race still to finish, Barack Obama’s party have 58 seats to the Republicans' 41. It is still the largest Democratic majority since the 1970s but had Martin won in Georgia - and if the Minnesota contest finishes in favour of the Democrats - 60 seats would have enabled them to pass legislation largely untroubled by filibusters or other GOP opposition.

According to Tim Reid on the London Times, even 58 or 59 seats may well be enough for the Democrats. He points out that there are a sufficient number of moderate Republicans in the Senate to allow Obama "to pass a swathe of legislation without significant trouble". However, Chambliss’s re-election was vital to ensure the Democrats didn't enjoy the political equivalent of a "blank cheque" – something Chambliss referred to in his acceptance speech: "When he [Obama] wants to raise your taxes, when he wants to tinker with the Second Amendment, when he wants to make proposals with respect to health care that is going to take your choice of choosing your doctor away form you, then I'm going to be the 41st senator to stand up and say no."

The Democrats were unable to recreate the high voter turn-out on November 4 for this run-off election. An expert in southern state politics, Merle Black, told the New York Times: "For a lot of African-American voters, the real election was last month." For the Republicans however, yesterday's result was far more important. Campaigning on behalf of Chambliss in the closing stages, Sarah Palin boldly stated that the Georgia run-off could lay the groundwork for a Republican resurgence: "If we are to lead again, we have lots of hard work ahead of us. Let it begin here in Georgia," she said.

Although some Democrats pleaded for Obama to come and campaign on behalf of Martin, Black points out that those requests were always in vain. "If Obama really thought that Martin was going to win, he'd make a quick hit and claim victory." But as James Oliphant of the Chicago Tribune notes, a visit could have damaged Obama’s reputation. When a similar situation arose in Georgia after the 1992 election, Bill Clinton came and campaigned on behalf of Democrat Wyche Fowler who then lost: "The episode was one of several reasons that Clinton's first term was considered to have gotten off to a shaky start."

FIRST POSTED DECEMBER 3, 2008