The Electoral College split: what the pundits predict

The winner of today's presidential election is the candidate who wins more than 50 per cent of the 538 Electoral College votes, each state being allotted votes according to their population (Vermont, for instance, has three, Florida 27 and mighty California 55). So 270 is the magic number to pass.

Here, in alphabetical order, is what some of the best-known political commentators were predicting as Americans went to the polls today. Only one man, Fred Barnes, believes McCain can out-race Obama. Conservative George Will, who heavily criticised the Republican candidate for picking Sarah Palin as his running mate, is the most gloomy about McCain's chances...

Alan Abramowitz, Emory University political scientist:
Obama 361, McCain 177

Fred Barnes, Weekly Standard editor:
McCain 286, Obama 252

Donna Brazile, Democratic strategist:
Obama 343, McCain 195

James Carville, former Clinton political advisor:
Obama 330, McCain 208

Alexander Cockburn, The First Post:
Obama 305, McCain 233

Matthew Dowd, former Bush strategist:
Obama 338, McCain 200

Mark Halperin, Time magazine:
Obama 349, McCain 189

Arianna Huffington, the Huffington Post:
Obama 318, McCain 220

Chris Matthews, MSNBC host:
Obama 338, McCain 200

David Plotz, Slate editor:
Obama 336, McCain 202

Ed Rollins, Republican strategist:
Obama 353, McCain 185

Karl Rove, former White House deputy Chief of Staff:
Obama 338, McCain 200

Nate Silver, statistician, FiveThirtyEight.com:
Obama 347, McCain 191

George Stephanopoulos, ABC News:
Obama 353, McCain 185

Michael Tomasky, the Guardian:
Obama 338, McCain 200

George Will, conservative columnist:
Obama 378, McCain 160

FIRST POSTED NOVEMBER 4, 2008